I know people typically don't pay attention to straw polls, but I think what happened yesterday is huge. The more I look at the big picture, the more I can see Herman Cain actually winning the nomination and the presidency.
Lets start with the specifics of the Florida P5 Straw Poll. The people that vote in the straw poll are Florida Republican Delegates, basically made up of the shakers and movers for the Republicans in Florida. The Florida Straw Poll has been around since 1979, and has accurately selected the Republican Nominee 100% of the time, and also has a history of finding the candidate that no one is expecting (eg. Reagan) that becomes the eventual winner. Think of it like the electoral college, where the bigger states have more votes. Florida sends a ton of delegates to the Republican convention, so winning the Florida primary is 80% of the battle. If he can build on this love affair with Florida Republicans, he has a huge advantage. Romney has been campaigning there for 5 years and got about 1/3 of Cain's support.
Looking at his policies relative to the public opinion, I see big time potential.
Cain on Taxes: He is in favor of basically abolishing the IRS and replacing it with his 9-9-9 tax plan. The 9-9-9 plan says you have a flat business profit tax of 9%, down from somewhere around 30% for some companies; a 9% national sales tax up from 0%, just like the sales state tax); and a 9% personal income tax for everyone down from around 30% for most people. That's it. No other taxes. Plain. Simple. Effective. No more IRS, no more forms, no more loop holes. It's completely fair as everyone pays the same percentage across the board. The rich make and spend more so will pay more in sales tax and income tax. I've always supported something more like a 25% national sales tax with no income tax or business profit tax at all (eg. Ron Paul), but this is close enough. This isn't as extreme as what the hard tea party people are asking for, but it's much better than the status quo and the business world will love it. Additionally, which the vast majority of Americans will get massive tax cuts through this, as they aren't effected by by business profits tax, while exchanging 20% savings on all the money they earn, for a 9% increase on money they spend. That's a great deal for everyone.
Cain on Social Security: He is also in favor of privatizing social security with the Chilean model. Since the current system will be out of money is 30 years with absolutely no hope of being improved without radical change, we NEED to get this program away from government right away. Basically he wants people to save all the money they pay into Social Security, and instead let them invest it themselves in low risk options. This eliminates any chance of the system running out of money and leaving the taxpayer to make up the difference.
This site does a good job of explaining the specifics.
"Here's how they do social security in Chile according to Cato.org. Workers are given the choice as to whether they would like to stay in a pay-as-you-go plan (like we have in the U.S.) or a new system in which they can put their entire payroll tax into a retirement account. That way, they can benefit from compound interest.
93% of Chilean's elect to participate in the new system. It's run by 15 private companies.
We guaranteed benefits for the elderly -- we told those people who had already retired that they had nothing to fear from this reform. We also told people entering the labor force for the first time that they had to go to the new system.
Today, all workers in Chile are capitalists, because their money is invested in the stock market. And they also understand that if government tomorrow were to create the conditions for inflation, they would be damaged because some of the money is also invested in bonds -- around 60%. So the whole working population of Chile has a vested interest in sound economic policies and a pro-market, pro-private-enterprise environment.
Not only that, but the savings rate in Chile went up from 10% to 27% of GNP. There's no payroll tax, and with full employment and that great savings rate, the economy has blossomed.
"We are based on biblical values" (I hate the whole God in Government thing)"No special privileges for gays; bring back don't ask don't tell". (He will not get a Barney Frank endorsement)
From me: I don't know if I'm in the majority or minority here, but I really don't give a shit about social issues for the most part. My opinion is the government shouldn't be able to tell us what to do, so anyone that pushes their social opinions at all is too 'big government' for me. I like Cain because he focuses on taxes, jobs, and budgets, which is what the government should be doing. If want to blow a guy, Herman Cain isn't going to stop me. (I don't want that, FYI).
How it all comes together: The reason I think Cain will win this whole thing is the following. He's radical enough on entitlement support to get the tea party, he's moderate enough in his tax reform to get the independents, he's black enough to get the blacks, and he's charismatic enough to get the 90% of Americans who vote for whoever has the best witty one-liners and Martin Luther King quotes.
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